7e. American stocks simulations

See also:

7c. Indexes

(SP 500)

7d. European stocks

Only one extreme case simulation

  

Exclusive calculator helping you start your own simulations for the stocks you follow, using your own earnings per share projections.

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Footnotes:
(1)  in current money value (not deflated)
(2)  theoretical data that may be used to refine comparisons,  but the market does not take it much into account, often the contrary
(3)  you may use estimated rates instead of current ones if you expect important forthcoming rate changes
(4)  narrow (=with very few firms) indexes such as the CAC or DJ, are a reference for many operations. This gives to stocks from this "exclusive"club a liquidity and notoriety above the whole market. This puffs up their prices by a specific quality premium. Thus their images are about 10-15 % higher than the whole market's image shown in our B table.

(5)  the low image / high image bracket could  be the same in each scenario even if, more often, images tend to be high when EPS are rising and low when they are falling.

Pick your scenario

1

2

3

4

. EPS 5 years variation estimate (1)

       

. Estimated EPS 2009

       

. Estimated normalized midcycle EPS

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2)

. Present or estim. (3) interest rate (bonds)
.  Present or estim. (3) inflation rate

4,0%
1,0 %

. Primary PER (see PPER table)

11

. Present gross dividend

 

. EEV (= EPS x primary PER + 5 x dividend)

       

. Low image (4) (5)

 

. Structural image (4) (5)

 

. High image (4) (5)

 

. Low PMV

       

. Structural PMV

       

. High PMV

       

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