Contributions: 3. Weak signals
First, a definition. In economics and other social sciences,
weak signals are
* events that are small, under the surface, unnoticed, overlooked,
hard to distinguish from the background noise
that may announce big social, economic and financial evolutions.
3a. The Internet chain of value
(04 Mar. 2000) by Helge Loekke Webmaster of the World Cycle Analyst site
I was amazed by the AOL/ TW merger.
Internet is simply a conduit, and how the former can take over the latter,
tells me that there is something strange going on.
Whether you are an attractive women, or have something somebody desperately
want, will be the bottom line in the future.
We will have as many conduits as there are nerves in your brain.
Time Warner should have waited, and so should Disney or anybody who owns
something speaking to peoples hearts .
Then of course there might be something I do not understand, but eventually the
answer will be obvious.
Everybody is printing monopoly money, and seemingly intelligent people seem
Peter Greenfinch's comment (updated Dec. 2002)
Yes, how strange that, looking at the overpricing of many portals and online
intermediaries at that times, the guy producing the messages seems to get less
value than the one operating the pipe. Sure, it was consistent with some sociologic
theories in which the medium / tool plays a more important role than the
message / information . But may be not definitively, or without resistance,
whence my comment at the time:
But what if the future brings some backlash shifts in this "Internet chain of value"?
Maybe AOL was fearing that.
Then, yes, it might have been better for Time Warner to wait.
To support that, I see an interesting "weak" (meaning overlooked) signal:
Bill Gates and Marc Getty seem more keen on investing in contents, such as
proprietary photo libraries, than in access pipes.
Do they think that, one day, messages will be more valuable than media ?
As Sony makes money not in Playstations but in Playstations' CDs?
So that the control point and profit center in the chain of value would shift
from the medium to the message?
Which means that medias might then have to pay and fight to accede to
certain proprietary / high value contents?