-
Warning:
This is a highly complex topic,
thus this article is still a working paper.
Comments are welcome !
Out of the currency mess
Building a global monetary
bridge
thus this article is still a working paper.
Comments are welcome !
Out of the currency mess
Building a global monetary
bridgeA reminder: what is money nowadays
Money,
the Swiss army knife of the economy, as a
tool of exchange, valuation and value storage,
is less and less made of banknotes and coins.
It is more and more an electronic blip.
Money is nowadays mostly created and managed by the banking system, in the form
of bank deposits, which support various tools of payments and transfers,
mostly electronic.
Central banks still have a role in money issuing, but chiefly as supervision institutions
and "last resort" lenders.
OK!
But what is backing that creation?
What gives money its value?
tool of exchange, valuation and value storage,
is less and less made of banknotes and coins.
It is more and more an electronic blip.
Money is nowadays mostly created and managed by the banking system, in the form
of bank deposits, which support various tools of payments and transfers,
mostly electronic.
Central banks still have a role in money issuing, but chiefly as supervision institutions
and "last resort" lenders.
OK!
But what is backing that creation?
What gives money its value?
Money is essentially a chain oflegal commitments:
Borrowers committed to banks, themselves committed to depositors,
as detailed in the what is money article.
But as moneys are diverse, and diversely controlled, is the chain
always and everywhere fully safe?
A World monetary collapse in the making
The wind of distrust
Currently, there is some doubt, even some anguish, about how - at the World level -
the chain of commitments stated above is reliable.
We see a nascent distrust towards the major currencies.
The high volatility in Forex (foreign exchange) quotations is a symptom, the price
rise of precious metals is another, the sovereign debt turmoil adds to the picture.
There is a double problem of trust:
Currently, there is some doubt, even some anguish, about how - at the World level -
the chain of commitments stated above is reliable.
We see a nascent distrust towards the major currencies.
The high volatility in Forex (foreign exchange) quotations is a symptom, the price
rise of precious metals is another, the sovereign debt turmoil adds to the picture.
There is a double problem of trust:
- One linked to how the World financial and economic environment
It has deteriorated since 2007,
It suffered a long chain of turmoils and dramatic crises, under the virus of
overleverage (excessive debt), whether public or private, one of the
worst enemies of money (and economy).
To take only a few examples of the unsolved issues, affecting notably some
monetary zones (this roughly relates to what was called up to now the developed
countries that ceded to the belief that "growth" can be bought with debts instead
of deep structural adaptation).
It suffered a long chain of turmoils and dramatic crises, under the virus of
overleverage (excessive debt), whether public or private, one of the worst enemies of money (and economy).
To take only a few examples of the unsolved issues, affecting notably some
monetary zones (this roughly relates to what was called up to now the developed
countries that ceded to the belief that "growth" can be bought with debts instead
of deep structural adaptation).
- Important
trade
imbalances persist
(an excessive money creation by the US notably was
and is still a factor,
But structural evolutions play a part too.
But structural evolutions play a part too.
-
Most Western governments are highly indebted (sovereign debt crisis)
- Some central bank portfolios are filled with dubious assets
They were amassed through
"quantitative or other schemes to
rescue banks or
to buy sovereign debts and other risky assets.
They are also keeping low interest rates, in other words their activity, although
highly risky, is unprofitable, which makes worry on their own safety and on the
value of the money they control (central banks are supposed to be the
supreme masters of good money creation and management).
=> Some of those central banks, currently praised as "lenders of last resort"
that could do wonders at times, could have one day a crisis of trust, as
the money / currency they issue is backed by perilous assets.
to buy sovereign debts and other risky assets.
They are also keeping low interest rates, in other words their activity, although
highly risky, is unprofitable, which makes worry on their own safety and on the
value of the money they control (central banks are supposed to be the
supreme masters of good money creation and management).
=> Some of those central banks, currently praised as "lenders of last resort"
that could do wonders at times, could have one day a crisis of trust, as
the money / currency they issue is backed by perilous assets.
- Of course, commercial banks are also weakened
as they are key players in creating and storing
money in deposits, and also
they use some refinancing from central banks, thus depend on the health
of those exalted institutions.
Also insurance companies and investment funds with sovereign debts
in their portfolio run the same risk.
There is presently a streak of solvency rating downgrades that lead to
talks about the "recapitalization" of some large banks.
they use some refinancing from central banks, thus depend on the health
of those exalted institutions.
Also insurance companies and investment funds with sovereign debts
in their portfolio run the same risk.
There is presently a streak of solvency rating downgrades that lead to
talks about the "recapitalization" of some large banks.
- The other one linked to a more permanent and intrinsic issue :
The global monetary
governance deficiencies,
as the international monetary system is not a system
but an unorganized / erratic blob.
Those genetic flaws have been plaguing it for decades and this article details them
extensively below.
The Bretton Wood agreement after WWII was flawed as based on a national currency,
the US dollar, and it logically collapsed in the 70s.
as the international monetary system is not a system
but an unorganized / erratic blob.
Those genetic flaws have been plaguing it for decades and this article details them
extensively below.
The Bretton Wood agreement after WWII was flawed as based on a national currency,
the US dollar, and it logically collapsed in the 70s.
=> There is a blatant lack of clear and stable
monetary references and of a
global monetary governance that would allow the system to resist
a major storm.
global monetary governance that would allow the system to resist
a major storm.
The combination of those extrinsic and
intrinsic factors
makes the
system (or lack of system) disorganized, erratic, chaotic.
=> The demise of the
present system seems to be only a matter of time
The lava is rising within the
volcano, the eruption can happen any time.
* Will it take the form of a general monetary
collapse?
=> A flight from cash towards any other "exchangeable" asset?
While monies would themselves become toxic assets?
=> And as a result a major economic tsunami ?
* Or will an alternative system be implemented before too late?
It supposes that the heads of governments accept NOW to share their
sovereignty, something we can be pessimistic about.
The issue is strongly linked to another, the sovereign debt turmoil.
We have twin menaces here !
=> A flight from cash towards any other "exchangeable" asset?
While monies would themselves become toxic assets?
=> And as a result a major economic tsunami ?
* Or will an alternative system be implemented before too late?
It supposes that the heads of governments accept NOW to share their
sovereignty, something we can be pessimistic about.
The issue is strongly linked to another, the sovereign debt turmoil.
We have twin menaces here !
This article analyzes those monetary flaws and proposes
a path towards a more consistent
World monetary system.
Lack # 1: no monetary pivot, reference, standard
Lacking a standard global meter
We live in a "multilateral monetary system" based on floating currency rates.
Why not, it can help those currencies to find their own position in the monetary galaxy.
But there is no universal
standard of value
to see clearly their coordinates in the celestial map. As if we had a metric system without meter.
This lack of common reference favors indirectly a "currency war" as currencies
are pitted directly against one another.
The old monetary pivot, the US dollar, is now in some respects a lame duck.
But none of the other major currencies is up to the task of becoming that central
reference
Some think about gold as the default reference. The gold price has been raising
for years (although that bubble is losing presently some of its resilience). But for
various reasons, shown below, it seems unfit to become a monetary pivot or
yardstick.
Is the floating exchange rate system the real problem?
Some accuse that floating exchange rate system (well, not a system, just a free
quasi-natural process in which several goods are offered on the market stalls)
for the instability.
This accusation does not address the real issue.
As long as there is no global currency, and as seen in this article, it can only be
a long term goal, the world lives obviously with a motley and unstable monetary
system.
This is not a flaw in itself: as long as there are several currencies, it would be illusive
to consider that any currency can have a fixed value relation with others ...if we find
a common yardstick (this is what is missing, a point this article will detail) to have
a clear view of that currency's own value .
With this only reservation, this lack of a common reference of value, in a multi currency
world, a floating exchange system is much more flexible than a pseudo fixed
rate system, something the world experienced already several times and which
could not work.
The fixed rates were a source of highly disruptive and speculative moves
with episodic dramatic "competitive" devaluations and reevaluations.
The
most famous of those systems was instituted in Bretton Woods after
WWII, and collapsed under its contradictions and inconsistencies in 1971.
Moreover, the commercial distortions caused by the unjustified persistence
of some fixed rates, like for the Chinese yuan, do not really makes palatable
a general pullback to that old system.
WWII, and collapsed under its contradictions and inconsistencies in 1971.
Moreover, the commercial distortions caused by the unjustified persistence
of some fixed rates, like for the Chinese yuan, do not really makes palatable
a general pullback to that old system.
So, what is the real problem?
The real problem at the moment is not in the
floating rates,
but in the fact that there is no commonly recognized
general standard in which to make the quotations.
We don't have a single measure of temperature,
length or whatever. Every
engineer will tell you is a source of
confusions that send rockets crashing into the sea.
Lack #2: no global monetary governance
Lacking a World monetary sheriff
Also, and this is one of the paradoxes of our era of economic and communication
globalization, and whatever the secret coordination between central banks, no
global institution really supervises the world monetary situation,
in order to:
Also, and this is one of the paradoxes of our era of economic and communication
globalization, and whatever the secret coordination between central banks, no
global institution really supervises the world monetary situation,
in order to:
-
Provide a common currency price reference as seen above,
and also an unquestionable monetary interest rate reference,
not the subjective (and manipulated) reference was revealed by
the Libor scandal.
the Libor scandal.
-
Be the World central body that would play the role of
-
Guarantor / manager of that monetary standard,
-
Universal reserve depository for central banks,
-
Lender of last resort
-
World monetary regulator and Court.
-
maybe just because it is not a real independent global entity, even less a democratic
body that would represent the world citizens, but a bargaining place between nations
with diverging agendas.
What are not up to the task either are all "inter-governmental" (instead of "global")
bodies, including the UN.
The "democratic globalization" article shows that a global democracy is needed to face
the global challenges.
A new example of the deficient, nation-driven world governance, specifically
in the monetary area, was seen in a Feb. 2011 decision by G20 members
(85 percent of the world economy) to follow economic indicators.
OK, except that they were limited to countries' public debt and fiscal deficits,
private savings rate and private debt, trade balances and net investment income
flows.
This was a half-measure as - because of China opposition - it lacks monetary
/ foreign exchange indicators i.e. real exchange rates and currency reserves.
Also nothing was decided about if and how those indicators would be used at the
global policy level!
What options?
* A private monetary "coup"
Take over bid on our purses?
By not tackling the issue with a global vision, national politicians run the risk that
their monetary power be overtaken, not by a common sovereign monetary body,
but by large economic and financial groups.
Those private business entities, fearing the instability and fragility of the present
situation, that entails the risk of a general monetary meltdown, and tired to see
governments dithering on the issue, could get tempted to create in an emergency
their own common currency that would become a universal monetary reference.
By not tackling the issue with a global vision, national politicians run the risk that
their monetary power be overtaken, not by a common sovereign monetary body,
but by large economic and financial groups.
Those private business entities, fearing the instability and fragility of the present
situation, that entails the risk of a general monetary meltdown, and tired to see
governments dithering on the issue, could get tempted to create in an emergency
their own common currency that would become a universal monetary reference.
=> Those groups would as a result make their own money.With their own rules, in theirown interest,
in an undemocratic way.
* Regional monetary zones?
Blocks of money?
Regional monetary zones are in the making, as a palliative for the lack of a stable
and trustworthy currency to deal with the bulk of international trade.
In Asia, such attempts - inspired by the Euro, which was a first dent on the
US dollar hegemony - can be detected, as based on the reciprocal acceptance of
currencies in trade operations and on currency swaps between central banks.
There is no reason that the inter-Asiatic trade, in full growth, be done in US dollars.
This does not means that the Chinese yuan, an unconvertible currency up to now,
will become soon a new world monetary standard.
Maybe a similar zone will also emerge soon in Latin America.
Or one among other emergent countries
Also some alliances between large zones can be initiated.
For example the largest and most advanced emerging countries, which have some
distrust towards the US dollar and the US debt in which a big portion of their
monetary reserves are invested, will probably participate to a support fund of
the Eurozone.
But how stable and permanent can be such alliances ?
Anyway, such a limited monetary multilateralism under the hand of regional
blocks can bring some more trust and facilitates some transactions.
But it does not solve the global issue, it even creates new divisions, and it does
not cancel the menace of a worldwide storm.
Regional monetary zones are in the making, as a palliative for the lack of a stable
and trustworthy currency to deal with the bulk of international trade.
In Asia, such attempts - inspired by the Euro, which was a first dent on the
US dollar hegemony - can be detected, as based on the reciprocal acceptance of
currencies in trade operations and on currency swaps between central banks.
There is no reason that the inter-Asiatic trade, in full growth, be done in US dollars.
This does not means that the Chinese yuan, an unconvertible currency up to now,
will become soon a new world monetary standard.
Maybe a similar zone will also emerge soon in Latin America.
Or one among other emergent countries
Also some alliances between large zones can be initiated.
For example the largest and most advanced emerging countries, which have some
distrust towards the US dollar and the US debt in which a big portion of their
monetary reserves are invested, will probably participate to a support fund of
the Eurozone.
But how stable and permanent can be such alliances ?
Anyway, such a limited monetary multilateralism under the hand of regional
blocks can bring some more trust and facilitates some transactions.
But it does not solve the global issue, it even creates new divisions, and it does
not cancel the menace of a worldwide storm.
* A World money?
Same picture in every pocket?
There are few chances that a unique and fully legal World currency can be launched
and can work in a foreseeable future as:
There are few chances that a unique and fully legal World currency can be launched
and can work in a foreseeable future as:
-
It adapts poorly to territories with highly different statesof economic development.
Of course a two tier system between resilient places and fragile ones
might be imagined.
might be imagined.
-
The opposition of nation-states, would be too strong.
conservation of riches, as something "sovereign", a symbol of state power and a
(hazardous) way to manipulate their economy,
Those two reasons are not fully convincing.
* The notion of "optimal monetary areas" is reductive.
It is often used only as a brilliant academic pretense.
* Nations might not stay blind eternally, opthalmic technologies are progressing.
But unless we make some minimal progresses toward a World federation, a full-fledged
world money seems out of sight.
=> Global democracy would need one day an all-purpose
legal World currency that all Earthlings would use.
But this is a long term goal.
Atransition step is needed.
and monetary standard?
WOMOST and WOMOI, a balanced approach
The transition step mentioned above would be based on
The transition step mentioned above would be based on
An official world monetary standard,
as an universal reference of value.It has to be implemented urgently,
before the global monetary tsunami strike!
For a long time gold was that standard.
Because of its defects (see below), it would not be up to the task.
Instead, a "virtual gold", as the seed for a WOMO (World Money), would be better
appropriate nowadays.
It would start as:
A World monetary standard (the
WOMOST).
Such a virtual being would seem to be made out of nothing (of course, this is not true, as
seen below) but only at the time of its creation (like the numbers, or like our languages
in general).
As soon as important transactions, contracts, quotations and financial commitments
and instruments are written with it, it will be a tangible reference of value.
Because of its defects (see below), it would not be up to the task.
Instead, a "virtual gold", as the seed for a WOMO (World Money), would be better
appropriate nowadays.
It would start as:
A World monetary standard (the
WOMOST). Such a virtual being would seem to be made out of nothing (of course, this is not true, as
seen below) but only at the time of its creation (like the numbers, or like our languages
in general).
As soon as important transactions, contracts, quotations and financial commitments
and instruments are written with it, it will be a tangible reference of value.
- To be effective and have a full consistency the WOMOST:
Should be linked to 
economic activities.
Thus it will need to be backed by economic commitments, just as all monies
are made nowadays as seen above, but with a global supervision that is presently
lacking.
economic activities. Thus it will need to be backed by economic commitments, just as all monies
are made nowadays as seen above, but with a global supervision that is presently
lacking.
-
Should be managed in a cooperative way,
with
enough independence from leading countries, so as to have public
legitimacy
and to avoid any national hegemony to take over.
and to avoid any national hegemony to take over.
=>Here we have the other leg of the biped :
A World monetary institution (the WOMOI).
To implement such a standard and such an
institution seems to be the reasonable
minimum step to face the present situation, which is getting more and more
chaotic and disastrous without common global reference and governance.
This first step, still far from a full fledge universal money, would be limited to:
minimum step to face the present situation, which is getting more and more
chaotic and disastrous without common global reference and governance.
This first step, still far from a full fledge universal money, would be limited to:
-
At the governance / supervision level, a World federal monetary authority
(the WOMOI, World monetary institution)
-
As a section of it, at the operating level,
a global agency responsible for the monetary
standard (the WOMOST).
It would have some of the attributes of a central bank (a central bank of
central banks ?)
It would have some of the attributes of a central bank (a central bank of
central banks ?)
WOMOST /
World Monetary Standard
WOMOI /
World Monetary Institution
* The reference and pivot for
Forex quotes,
It would be thus compatible
with floating exchange rates* With a self standing value, as
an independent standard based
neither on precious metals nor
currency basket.* Also an optional quotation tool
for bonds, stocks, contracts,
commodities...* Democratic federal cooperative statute
* Supervisor of the world financial and banking
system, including "sovereign" aspects.* Legal power to put in check any (blatant)
monetary and financial distortion / excess (in
goods or asset prices, interest and exchange
rates, money creation, debt levels (overleverage),
public budgets, financial market practices,...)* Central bank of central banks (reserve pool
and liquidity supply bank for a smooth money
flow between the various monetary zones).
But
even this first highly needed step would not be too easy to take.
Nation-states stay anchored to independent national currencies (or at best continental
currencies as in Europe), whatever the problems they entail and the crises they tend
to lead to.
Another thing is that money holders believe that a traditional nation is a better warranty
than a world institution, because the nation's taxpayers are going to ...pay if the nation's
central bank defaults.
This is based on the dubious belief that nations are really and fully accountable towards
the rest of the world when they collapse financially.
Nation-states stay anchored to independent national currencies (or at best continental
currencies as in Europe), whatever the problems they entail and the crises they tend
to lead to.
Another thing is that money holders believe that a traditional nation is a better warranty
than a world institution, because the nation's taxpayers are going to ...pay if the nation's
central bank defaults.
This is based on the dubious belief that nations are really and fully accountable towards
the rest of the world when they collapse financially.
=> This is this first crucial step that this article proposes below
But then, what World monetary standard?
No, not gold, but economic commitments (credits)
The return of the relic?
Some see a come back of gold as a monetary standard. New cooking in an old pot!
Gold use as a reference of value has spanned several millenaries of human economic
History.
It has often been glorified as the absolute, even transcendental reference.
Gold came back into
fashion and its
price has been raising for years,
although there is now some backlash
This might have given the impression that this mythic metal was on the way to
become the absolute trusted value
.
Some see a come back of gold as a monetary standard. New cooking in an old pot!
Gold use as a reference of value has spanned several millenaries of human economic
History.
It has often been glorified as the absolute, even transcendental reference.
Gold came back into
fashion and its
price has been raising for years, although there is now some backlash
This might have given the impression that this mythic metal was on the way to
become the absolute trusted value
.
Beware of that myth! Evolution has struck!
Actually this dramatic (at the moment interrupted) rise have shown, precisely, that
the gold value is highly unstable, making it unfit to become a monetary pivot in our
modern times.
Is really a rare and glistening metal extracted from the Earth adapted to this new era?
A highly evolutive globalization era in which the reference of value should be the
whole World economy.
A dynamic environment in which the mass of available money should evolve as far as
possible in direct relation to the growth of economic activities and exchanges.
The available monetary instruments give an universal right on all riches and their value
does not have to be correlated to the value of a specific asset.
Here, let us look at some of the gold shortcomings:
- Physical gold is not practical to
handle.
There
is a high cost involved in producing, acquiring and storing this scarce
and expensive asset which,frankly, does not have much direct economic use.
and expensive asset which,frankly, does not have much direct economic use.
-
Gold does not have a stable value (high volatility).
This
is common to many physical assets (and other assets) which value
fluctuate
largely and rapidly because of erratic offers and demands variations.
largely and rapidly because of erratic offers and demands variations.
The gold value is not linked to economic activities and trade needs.
Actually it would bring a deflationist bias because of its limited and feebly growing
available quantity on a long period.
The same defects affect other assets, whether "hard" ones such as commodities and
softer ones such as corporate shares.
As for some even "softer" social or individual assets, such as human knowledge (it is
often said that we live now more and more in a "society of information and knowledge"),
not only their value is generally less determinable, but there is no way to transform it
into an exchange tool. Ask an alchemist!
Thus it is not just by chance that modern money, as said in this article's introduction, is
based instead on credits, as assets that represent human commitments related to the
economy.
acting as a global reserve bank
A world monetary pilot and a World monetary pool
A monetary globalisation could lead to:
1) A World financial authority that would act:
-
As the authority and Court
in charge of anticipating and preventing turmoils that
would affect as well financial
institutions (as was the case of the subprime crisis) as countries (sovereign debt crisis)
It will have a direct (supranational) legal authority, and an adequate staff and technical
equipment to put in check blatant:
institutions (as was the case of the subprime crisis) as countries (sovereign debt crisis)
It will have a direct (supranational) legal authority, and an adequate staff and technical
equipment to put in check blatant:
-
Monetary and financial unbalances / excesses
in money creation, economic and
financial prices, interest and exchange
rates (commercial dumping via undervalued currency), public budget
and public debt level.
rates (commercial dumping via undervalued currency), public budget
and public debt level.
-
Abusive financial practices under cover of "innovation"
It will here fulfill the role of World financial police with large investigation
means and powers.
A good overseeing system is more important than an hyper regulation which
is so cumbersome that it cannot really be applied and which cannot foresee
what new forms of funny businesses will be imagined in the future.
That investigating body should not limit itself to banks but should also
have an eye on "non-banks'. Its area should cover any financial outfit
of some importance.
means and powers.
A good overseeing system is more important than an hyper regulation which
is so cumbersome that it cannot really be applied and which cannot foresee
what new forms of funny businesses will be imagined in the future.
That investigating body should not limit itself to banks but should also
have an eye on "non-banks'. Its area should cover any financial outfit
of some importance.
-
Other imbalances, by a narrow coordination with other world institutions
(ILO, WTO...) which objective is
to harmonizes commercial and social practices
to avoid harmful distortions.
to avoid harmful distortions.
- As the supervisor of the world monetary agency / bank
mentioned above and detailed below, which financial role would include monetary
aspects (bizarrely not covered by the IMF presently)
aspects (bizarrely not covered by the IMF presently)
-
As the supervisor also of a global bank guarantee fund,
financed by
levies on the "too big to fail" banks and other financial institutions
that could entail a global systemic financial risk.
that could entail a global systemic financial risk.
2) A World monetary reserve bank
(a kind of super central bank at the global level)
a true world standard currency.
The full 1) + 2) system, a totally different
"IMF - International Monetary Fund", that would be
* endowed with those badly needed judiciary, financial and monetary
attributes,
* democratically governed (see "the piloting authority" chapter),
* democratically governed (see "the piloting authority" chapter),
could be called, as already seen above:
the WOMOI (World Monetary Institution)
Floating exchange rates would not disappear
OK, a new standard is to be found.
But not like the old "bancor" project, sorry Keynes.
That reference of value would have been at the same time highly volatile / speculative
(as based on the price of commodities) and over-rigid (with fixed currency rates linked
to the standard).
The new standard, in this first step, would just be a common and independent
pivot of value to measure the value of the other currencies on international foreign exchange markets (Forex).
Presently, if there is a big change in the Euro - Dollar rate, how do you know
which one rises and which one falls if there is no global pivot / price reference ?
The exchange rates would still be floating, as flexibility is necessary in this step
(by the way, pressure should be applied to China to make its money convertible and
fully tradable).
And the global unit of accounts, this common meter or kilogram, the WOMOST issued
by the WOMOI, would allow to gauge better the general state of currency fluctuations.
Also, the policy of the WOMOI, as a global monetary pilot, would allow to control
any wild rate skidding..
An independent standard
As a universal near-currency, used as national / continental central bank reserves or
for asset / commodity market quotations and contract quotations, as seen below,
the WOMOST, World monetary standard, should be
independent of national / continental currencies.
It should be self-standing to avoid a "circularity" that would contaminate its value with
the vagaries of national / continental currencies.
The value of those currencies should refer to that standard, but the standard should not
be enslaved to the value of those currencies.
Practically, its value should not reflect a "basket" of national / continental
currencies as is the case for the IMF's Special drawing Rights (SDR).
It has anyway to be noted that the IMF did not went far enough in issuing bonds
denominated in SDRs, that would have accustomed the financial circles to the idea
that a World monetary unit is feasible, and to the need of a market to use it.
Technically, what issuing process, securities, governance?
The piloting authority
Talking to the shop manager
Only a central body, the WOMOI, which attributes are described above, and that
would be - a decisive improvement - totally autonomous and democratically
appointed (*), can organize and monitor the creation of a credit commitment money
adapted as well to the economic activity as to the general need of the economic players.
This global institution, a kind of "super central bank", would issue the reference
currency.
It would also control in some way the national / continental central banks
that issue their own ones, as that institution would be in charge of the cash-register
of last resort.
(*) It should one day become a "one man one vote" World citizen cooperative,
even if the road towards that goal is long and hard so as to avoid its domination by
businesses, nations and politicians with their agendas. Maybe the issue of local
sections would arise, but for crucial questions the vote should be worldwide.
This is a condition of legitimacy and of independence for the WOMOI and
of reliability and sustainability for the WOMOST (**).
The WOMOI should be independent like the magistrates and jurors of a Court, with
a full separation of powers. Montesquieu-style monetary governance!
Also, the WOMOI should not just be a producer of arcane but self-defeating
hyper regulation but a legal body with a highly competent staff, extensive,
sophisticated and adaptive means and full authority to anticipate, investigate, stop
and sanction any serious deviation from sound fundamental principles
Only a central body, the WOMOI, which attributes are described above, and that
would be - a decisive improvement - totally autonomous and democratically
appointed (*), can organize and monitor the creation of a credit commitment money
adapted as well to the economic activity as to the general need of the economic players.
This global institution, a kind of "super central bank", would issue the reference
currency.
It would also control in some way the national / continental central banks
that issue their own ones, as that institution would be in charge of the cash-register
of last resort.
(*) It should one day become a "one man one vote" World citizen cooperative,
even if the road towards that goal is long and hard so as to avoid its domination by
businesses, nations and politicians with their agendas. Maybe the issue of local
sections would arise, but for crucial questions the vote should be worldwide.
This is a condition of legitimacy and of independence for the WOMOI and
of reliability and sustainability for the WOMOST (**).
The WOMOI should be independent like the magistrates and jurors of a Court, with
a full separation of powers. Montesquieu-style monetary governance!
Also, the WOMOI should not just be a producer of arcane but self-defeating
hyper regulation but a legal body with a highly competent staff, extensive,
sophisticated and adaptive means and full authority to anticipate, investigate, stop
and sanction any serious deviation from sound fundamental principles
(**) if not it would just be another international treaty that some country could quit
or consider not binding, or more probably that would be condemned to inertia as
the partners would spend their time squabbling, like in existing inter-national
institutions, instead of taking decisions and reacting to situations.
Central banks refinancing, reserves pooling, money issuing
The two sides of
the balance sheet.
The balance sheet of the WOMOI, should not be too large.
Its goal is not to compete with the overall commercial banking system.
That system will create (of course under the supervision of the WOMOI) its own
interbank monetary market in WOMOST for cross-financing operations
between banks.
The WOMOI should stay mostly a regulator, a lender of last resort and a holder
of a universal monetary reference, but not the everyday refinancing body.
Also the commercial banks would create by themselves accounts, traveler cheques
and other instruments in WOMOST.
The WOMOI balance sheet would include
* As Assets (credits and investments / reserves)
The balance sheet of the WOMOI, should not be too large.
Its goal is not to compete with the overall commercial banking system.
That system will create (of course under the supervision of the WOMOI) its own
interbank monetary market in WOMOST for cross-financing operations
between banks.
The WOMOI should stay mostly a regulator, a lender of last resort and a holder
of a universal monetary reference, but not the everyday refinancing body.
Also the commercial banks would create by themselves accounts, traveler cheques
and other instruments in WOMOST.
The WOMOI balance sheet would include
* As Assets (credits and investments / reserves)
-
Some, mostly exceptional, short term credits to central banks,
granted in WOMOST with interest rates that can
differ according to
the monetary risk situation of the related zone.
the monetary risk situation of the related zone.
-
Also accounts written in those other central banks currencies
(see
below the interventions in those currencies).
-
A limited amount of Treasury bonds,
with clear
limits for every issuing nation or territory and preferably
written in WOMOST.
Can they be called "credits" or "reserves"?
Let us say that they are credits that are supposed to be liquid enough
to act as "exchange reserves", enabling the WOMOI to intervene on
the foreign exchange markets by buying, selling and swapping other
currencies.
written in WOMOST.
Can they be called "credits" or "reserves"?
Let us say that they are credits that are supposed to be liquid enough
to act as "exchange reserves", enabling the WOMOI to intervene on
the foreign exchange markets by buying, selling and swapping other
currencies.
- As a "cushion" ("reserves") some other assets and investments,
including gold, with its image of trust whatever
its drawbacks already described.
Commodities, stocks, corporate bonds and other liquid enough assets would
not be totally excluded but also in small doses as too volatile.
Commodities, stocks, corporate bonds and other liquid enough assets would
not be totally excluded but also in small doses as too volatile.
* As Liabilities (resources)
- Equities, which could be of two kinds (two sections, or shareholder funds)
- Class
A equity: world citizen shares.
There would be a "one man one
vote" World cooperative section
of the WOMOI.
of the WOMOI.
- Class B equity: subscribed by governments, central banks, world institution
The proportion between
equity A and equity B would evolve progressively,
The A section would be given more vote than the B section, at least in proportion
to its equity contribution, for example 5/1.
As the equity capital should be sizable from the start, the A section
could at the origin represent over 99% of the subscribed capital and given 95%
of the votes, a ratio to be progressively lowered.
The A section would be given more vote than the B section, at least in proportion
to its equity contribution, for example 5/1.
As the equity capital should be sizable from the start, the A section
could at the origin represent over 99% of the subscribed capital and given 95%
of the votes, a ratio to be progressively lowered.
-
Deposits by national / continental central banks
(including compulsory interest-free stable
ones), used as a
reserve instrument for them.Some national central banks that are swimming in dollars-denominated reserves
could find some relief in transferring a part of them to the WOMOI so as to have
them written in WOMOST.
Traditional reserve instruments (in other currencies, in gold...) used by central
banks will coexist, but the "super-reserve" currency, the WOMOST might
gradually build up to reach a key proportion of their reserves in their own balance
sheet.
- Also WOMOST- denominated bonds,
as a stable resource to complement the WOMOI
equity.
They would be here also subscribed by central banks and governments, but should
be offered after a while to the general public, and traded in bond markets.
They would be here also subscribed by central banks and governments, but should
be offered after a while to the general public, and traded in bond markets.
The IMF decision to issue 5 year SDR notes in 2011 will give some experience
on how central banks and financial markets react to an experience in that direction.
-
Maybe a first batch of banknotes,
convertibles
in all major currencies, but sold by auctions as collectibles, so that the
general public can consider that it can also be "its" money, that they can even start
to use it,
by anticipating a full fledged World money.
What the WOMOST would be used for
The three blades:Its "primary" double role of
* A
common reserve currency (for central banks)
* A
common currency exchange standard (for forex quotes)
would not be enough. To give a consistent economic value to the WOMOST, it would
be necessary to enlarge from the start its role by making it a reference in key
international economic and financial transactions.
That would make it progressively closer to be a World money as a tool to measure
economic values and a tool of exchange.
Thus, could be progressively quoted in WOMOST:
-
The international commodity markets and major asset market,
-
The large international contracts,
-
The issuance of sovereign bonds (and other bonds).
-
Some
saving deposits offered by banks worldwide.
Of course this
would not solve the issue of excessive market price volatility
for commodities, currencies and financial assets, that are due not only to natural
economic factors (years of fat cows vs. years of skinny ones, to take a known allegory)
but also to a lack of coordination and harmonization of economic and fiscal policies
between the countries involved.
for commodities, currencies and financial assets, that are due not only to natural
economic factors (years of fat cows vs. years of skinny ones, to take a known allegory)
but also to a lack of coordination and harmonization of economic and fiscal policies
between the countries involved.
But the WOMOST would anyway bring some buffer to global asset prices as they
would not be linked to the situation of a national / continental currency used to quote
them and which could itself have period of high volatility.
To give an example, who can say in the current system, when the price of oil quoted
in US dollars rises, if the cause is a shortage of oil or a glut of dollars?
Making it a largely used / sustainable system
The
system can work not only it it provides some new oxygen to avoid the
general
collapse that is menacing but also if it has all the traits of a sustainable system,
therefore if it is
collapse that is menacing but also if it has all the traits of a sustainable system,
therefore if it is
-
Legitimate: as seen above,
the WOMOI should be more than an inter-national outfit
in which nations squabble,
but a global federal democratic institution with its own authority.
but a global federal democratic institution with its own authority.
- Highly trusted:
Not only the WOMOI needs a truly empowered
federal structure, an independent
governance and a strong political weight. But it should also have sizable stable
resources (see above also on what its balance sheet would rest).
Even if the WOMOST would not be a full fledged money, it should offer at least
the same guaranty, and preferably a higher one, than national currencies.
governance and a strong political weight. But it should also have sizable stable
resources (see above also on what its balance sheet would rest).
Even if the WOMOST would not be a full fledged money, it should offer at least
the same guaranty, and preferably a higher one, than national currencies.
- Largely used,
by developing fast enough the above mentioned
roles (reserves, equity and bonds
issuing, contract and markets reference...) so to obtain a huge market volume
that guarantees full liquidity for any transaction whatever its size)
issuing, contract and markets reference...) so to obtain a huge market volume
that guarantees full liquidity for any transaction whatever its size)
-
Largely accessible and usable:
convertibility of the continental / national
currencies, free use in alternative
to those currencies.
to those currencies.
Side currencies
There are private currencies used locally - or more universally in small circles -with their value either self referenced or linked to an official currency
Well, another thing, more general: every person could be declared to be a bank
which can create a limited sum of its own money...
The only difference with official money is that nobody that is not a member of
such closed system has to accept those "club tokens" as currencies.
They can be seen only as additional monetary tools.
Can we go further (hypothesis of a World money)?
To be strong and
trusted, a unique full-fledged World money would rest on
institutions on the World scale with enough political and economic and political integration.
institutions on the World scale with enough political and economic and political integration.
What prior steps?
This would
entail, if not a fully federal World,
-
At least a well advanced World organization towards that goal,
that would
go further that simple cooperations
-
Or, at best, isolated federal bodies that would deal with
some very
specialized areas and issues.
This
scheme is studied in the democratic globalization article.
Only after that first step towards some World wide organization, a full fledged
World money would be in sight.
It is hard to imagine it implemented fast, whatever the urgency.
Nations still prefer to bite at each other.
They shun the idea of a real counter power that would make the 21st century World
emerge as a civilized one.
There is still the idea that money is a sovereign attribute, not just an economic tool
(of course to be issued within a legal framework and a legal supervision, to protect
the users) .
Also nations are tempted to manipulate their money according to their trade and
fiscal situations, an expedient to compensate their economic weaknesses instead
of tackling them.
How would it work?
=> It
would rest on a World issuing institution (World central bank)
controlling a network of official territorial banks (the nodes of the network).
controlling a network of official territorial banks (the nodes of the network).
This would be rather similar to the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve
Board.
But in a more democratic way, as it would be based (as said before about its embryo,
the A section of the WOMOI) on a cooperative statute.
Hard to
give more detailed indications at this stage
as it would depend on a real World political integration
as it would depend on a real World political integration
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